Black Box - Why wait?

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Black Box - Why wait?

😉 Good Guy 😉

Can somebody tell me why is that in 2016, we are still relying on air
plane's black box when the data could be transmitted in real time to the
ground controls team who could assess it immediately and produce an
interim report for the security services.  Black box may take months to
find it and analyse it.  All these missing planes invariably end up in
deep seas and sometimes it is impossible to find the black box.




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Re: Black Box - Why wait?

RAV-2
On 5/19/2016 10:08 PM, Good Guy wrote:

>
> Can somebody tell me why is that in 2016, we are still relying on air
> plane's black box when the data could be transmitted in real time to the
> ground controls team who could assess it immediately and produce an
> interim report for the security services.  Black box may take months to
> find it and analyse it.  All these missing planes invariably end up in
> deep seas and sometimes it is impossible to find the black box.
>
>
>
No expert here, but from what I've read:  Immense expense of converting
all those planes, cost to transmit that data, tens of thousands of
flights per day to track, immense amount of bandwidth required (current
satellite infrastructure wouldn't be able to handle it), sensitivity of
information, lack of reliability (if something catastrophic occurs,
communications of that type could go down), etc.  On the other hand I've
also read that a system is being developed which would track basic
flight information from satellites (position, altitude, speed, heading),
so that they could more reliability predict where a plane went down.
Perhaps someone with more expertise in this area will respond.
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Re: Black Box - Why wait?

Sailfish-4
In reply to this post by 😉 Good Guy 😉
My bloviated meandering follows what Good Guy graced us with on
5/19/2016 7:08 PM:
>
> Can somebody tell me why is that in 2016, we are still relying on air
> plane's black box when the data could be transmitted in real time to the
> ground controls team who could assess it immediately and produce an
> interim report for the security services.  Black box may take months to
> find it and analyse it.  All these missing planes invariably end up in
> deep seas and sometimes it is impossible to find the black box.
>
The Black Boxes have tapes with many tracks (as many as 28), some
analog, some digital. The bandwidth required to transmit all that data
real time would be horrendous in addition to the fact that there is so
much data that it would be virtually impossible to analyze in real time.

--
Sailfish
Rare Mozilla Stuff: http://tinyurl.com/lcey2ex
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Re: Black Box - Why wait?

PietB
Sailfish wrote:
> The Black Boxes have tapes with many tracks (as many as 28),
> some analog, some digital.

That was long ago. Today's black boxes have solid state memory.

-p

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Re: Black Box - Why wait?

Big Al-2
On 05/20/2016 08:48 AM, PietB wrote:
> Sailfish wrote:
>> The Black Boxes have tapes with many tracks (as many as 28),
>> some analog, some digital.
>
> That was long ago. Today's black boxes have solid state memory.
>
> -p
>
Even still, the number of flights and the amount of useless data to
transmit and store would be astronomical.     And I define useless
meaning all the flight data for all the flights that never have an
issue.  Those millions of hours of data and no accident.   Yes, the one
plane out of thousands and it would be there.

I still think a local black box is economical.   I agree with the
thought of cost of retro fitting and telemetry issues as previously
commented.

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Re: Black Box - Why wait?

Millwood
Big Al wrote:

> On 05/20/2016 08:48 AM, PietB wrote:
>> Sailfish wrote:
>>> The Black Boxes have tapes with many tracks (as many as 28),
>>> some analog, some digital.
>>
>> That was long ago. Today's black boxes have solid state memory.
>>
>> -p
>>
> Even still, the number of flights and the amount of useless data to
> transmit and store would be astronomical.     And I define useless
> meaning all the flight data for all the flights that never have an
> issue.  Those millions of hours of data and no accident.   Yes, the one
> plane out of thousands and it would be there.
>
> I still think a local black box is economical.   I agree with the
> thought of cost of retro fitting and telemetry issues as previously
> commented.
>
You really only have to store maybe the last 30 minutes of each flight
in progress and then delete when it reports safe landing.  If
transmission just stops you of course keep that.  If satellites do the
listing they can do the store and delete.
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Re: Black Box - Why wait?

Wolf K.
On 2016-05-20 11:29, Millwood wrote:

> Big Al wrote:
>> On 05/20/2016 08:48 AM, PietB wrote:
>>> Sailfish wrote:
>>>> The Black Boxes have tapes with many tracks (as many as 28),
>>>> some analog, some digital.
>>>
>>> That was long ago. Today's black boxes have solid state memory.
>>>
>>> -p
>>>
>> Even still, the number of flights and the amount of useless data to
>> transmit and store would be astronomical.     And I define useless
>> meaning all the flight data for all the flights that never have an
>> issue.  Those millions of hours of data and no accident.   Yes, the one
>> plane out of thousands and it would be there.
>>
>> I still think a local black box is economical.   I agree with the
>> thought of cost of retro fitting and telemetry issues as previously
>> commented.
>>
> You really only have to store maybe the last 30 minutes of each flight
> in progress and then delete when it reports safe landing.  If
> transmission just stops you of course keep that.  If satellites do the
> listing they can do the store and delete.

I think you mean a roll-over delete: at any given time, keep 30 minutes
of data, but the oldest data is continually deleted until the
transmission stops, at which point a "keep indefinitely" software switch
shifts the data to permanent storage. Merely tracking the path of the
plane, say every1 to 5 seconds, doesn't consume much bandwidth.

--
Best,
Wolf K.
kirkwood40.blogspot.ca
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Re: Black Box - Why wait?

Sailfish-4
In reply to this post by PietB
My bloviated meandering follows what PietB graced us with on 5/20/2016
5:48 AM:
> Sailfish wrote:
>> The Black Boxes have tapes with many tracks (as many as 28),
>> some analog, some digital.
>
> That was long ago. Today's black boxes have solid state memory.
>
Even so, that only changes the media that holds the data, not the
amount. In fact, I suspect that the amount of data itself has ballooned
with the ability to use economical solid state memory. It still would be
extremely difficult to expect the data to be transmitted via telemetry
means, even if one reduces the time span to a 30 minute LIFO buffer.
Then, the ability to have analysts available interrogate and access
these data streams in real time is even more problematic; especially
considering how many flights are in the air at any given moment.

I suppose a case could be made to add an analyst as a crew member but
even that would be of limited value if the object was to provide early
warning and alert since most crashes occur on either take-off or landing
and the terrorist attacks have nothing to do with the recorded system data.

I'd much rather see more effort into designing an economical passenger
escape capability but, realistically, that's not practical with todays
level of technology, more at:

REF:
http://www.defenseone.com/technology/2015/11/why-your-plane-cant-have-escape-pod/123989/

[excerpt quote=\"
Kit Darby, an airline consultant and former pilot, acknowledged that it
didn’t appear to be outside of the capabilities of physics, but such a
system would be economically and practically unrealistic, offering too
little in safety for great cost for passenger aircraft.
\" /]

--
Sailfish
Rare Mozilla Stuff: http://tinyurl.com/lcey2ex
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Re: Black Box - Why wait?

EE-2
In reply to this post by RAV-2
Rav wrote:

> On 5/19/2016 10:08 PM, Good Guy wrote:
>>
>> Can somebody tell me why is that in 2016, we are still relying on air
>> plane's black box when the data could be transmitted in real time to the
>> ground controls team who could assess it immediately and produce an
>> interim report for the security services.  Black box may take months to
>> find it and analyse it.  All these missing planes invariably end up in
>> deep seas and sometimes it is impossible to find the black box.
>>
>>
>>
> No expert here, but from what I've read:  Immense expense of converting
> all those planes, cost to transmit that data, tens of thousands of
> flights per day to track, immense amount of bandwidth required (current
> satellite infrastructure wouldn't be able to handle it), sensitivity of
> information, lack of reliability (if something catastrophic occurs,
> communications of that type could go down), etc.  On the other hand I've
> also read that a system is being developed which would track basic
> flight information from satellites (position, altitude, speed, heading),
> so that they could more reliability predict where a plane went down.
> Perhaps someone with more expertise in this area will respond.

There would still be the issue with cockpit voice recording.  Keeping
only the last half hour of cockpit sound before a disaster would be
tricky, to say the least.  The cockpit recording can be valuable, so
discarding it would be a mistake.

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Re: Black Box - Why wait?

😉 Good Guy 😉
On 20/05/2016 19:28, EE wrote:

> Rav wrote:
>> On 5/19/2016 10:08 PM, Good Guy wrote:
>>>
>>> Can somebody tell me why is that in 2016, we are still relying on air
>>> plane's black box when the data could be transmitted in real time to
>>> the
>>> ground controls team who could assess it immediately and produce an
>>> interim report for the security services.  Black box may take months to
>>> find it and analyse it.  All these missing planes invariably end up in
>>> deep seas and sometimes it is impossible to find the black box.
>>>
>>>
>>>
>> No expert here, but from what I've read:  Immense expense of converting
>> all those planes, cost to transmit that data, tens of thousands of
>> flights per day to track, immense amount of bandwidth required (current
>> satellite infrastructure wouldn't be able to handle it), sensitivity of
>> information, lack of reliability (if something catastrophic occurs,
>> communications of that type could go down), etc.  On the other hand I've
>> also read that a system is being developed which would track basic
>> flight information from satellites (position, altitude, speed, heading),
>> so that they could more reliability predict where a plane went down.
>> Perhaps someone with more expertise in this area will respond.
>
> There would still be the issue with cockpit voice recording. Keeping
> only the last half hour of cockpit sound before a disaster would be
> tricky, to say the least.  The cockpit recording can be valuable, so
> discarding it would be a mistake.
>

At least a live video would suffice.  At present we don't even know
whether the Egyptian Airline was downed by a bomb or mechanical
defect.    French would say it is too early to say while Egyptians says
it is terrorists.  So politics plays a part here .  French have a
football tournament to worry about while Egypt has to worry about tourism.

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Re: Black Box - Why wait?

Daniel
In reply to this post by Sailfish-4
On 20/05/2016 7:24 PM, Sailfish wrote:

> My bloviated meandering follows what Good Guy graced us with on
> 5/19/2016 7:08 PM:
>>
>> Can somebody tell me why is that in 2016, we are still relying on air
>> plane's black box when the data could be transmitted in real time to
>> the ground controls team who could assess it immediately and produce
>> an interim report for the security services.  Black box may take
>> months to find it and analyse it.  All these missing planes invariably
>> end up in deep seas and sometimes it is impossible to find the black box.
>>
> The Black Boxes have tapes with many tracks (as many as 28), some
> analog, some digital. The bandwidth required to transmit all that data
> real time would be horrendous in addition to the fact that there is so
> much data that it would be virtually impossible to analyze in real time.
>
No need to analyse all the data, all the time, in real time .... except
in those limited cases where something goes wrong.

--
Daniel

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Re: Black Box - Why wait?

Daniel
In reply to this post by Wolf K.
On 21/05/2016 1:37 AM, Wolf K. wrote:

<Snip>
 >                                                       Merely tracking
the path of the
> plane, say every1 to 5 seconds, doesn't consume much bandwidth.

I used to have a program, flight-tracker or some such, which allowed me
to check up on all plane flights in Australia/South-East Asia. I guess
it would set itself up based on your geolaction. It gave various data,
speed, elevation, direction, etc. You supposedly able to "see" what the
pilot saw out the window, too, but I never got this function working

So multiple planes updating my laptop every couple of minutes. Basic
data, but yes, it's possible!

--
Daniel

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Re: Black Box - Why wait?

Zeb Carter
Daniel wrote:

> On 21/05/2016 1:37 AM, Wolf K. wrote:
>
> <Snip>
> >                                                       Merely
> tracking the path of the
>> plane, say every1 to 5 seconds, doesn't consume much bandwidth.
>
> I used to have a program, flight-tracker or some such, which allowed
> me to check up on all plane flights in Australia/South-East Asia. I
> guess it would set itself up based on your geolaction. It gave various
> data, speed, elevation, direction, etc. You supposedly able to "see"
> what the pilot saw out the window, too, but I never got this function
> working
>
> So multiple planes updating my laptop every couple of minutes. Basic
> data, but yes, it's possible!
>
I can see several sides to things. Keep the black box and scrub the data
between flights if a successful landing is accomplished, Automatic
pinger that transmits the aircraft's vitals (altitude, lat/long via GPS,
direction of flight, and speed). The equipment would have to be located
somewhere on the plane where a terrorist could not get to it to sabotage
it. Improve the batteries in the black box to maintain a signal for more
than 30 days.

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Re: Black Box - Why wait?

Sailfish-4
In reply to this post by Daniel
My bloviated meandering follows what Daniel graced us with on 5/21/2016
5:48 AM:

> On 20/05/2016 7:24 PM, Sailfish wrote:
>> My bloviated meandering follows what Good Guy graced us with on
>> 5/19/2016 7:08 PM:
>>>
>>> Can somebody tell me why is that in 2016, we are still relying on air
>>> plane's black box when the data could be transmitted in real time to
>>> the ground controls team who could assess it immediately and produce
>>> an interim report for the security services.  Black box may take
>>> months to find it and analyse it.  All these missing planes invariably
>>> end up in deep seas and sometimes it is impossible to find the black
>>> box.
>>>
>> The Black Boxes have tapes with many tracks (as many as 28), some
>> analog, some digital. The bandwidth required to transmit all that data
>> real time would be horrendous in addition to the fact that there is so
>> much data that it would be virtually impossible to analyze in real time.
>>
> No need to analyse all the data, all the time, in real time .... except
> in those limited cases where something goes wrong.
>
Without a goodly portion of the data, I suspect that a pinpoint
post-analysis would still be improbable. Even if they could ascertain to
say a 70% chance of certainty, they'd still want to review the black box
before releasing any finding, imo.

--
Sailfish
Rare Mozilla Stuff: http://tinyurl.com/lcey2ex
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Re: Black Box - Why wait?

Terry
On 5/21/2016 12:27 PM On a whim, Sailfish pounded out on the keyboard

> My bloviated meandering follows what Daniel graced us with on 5/21/2016
> 5:48 AM:
>> On 20/05/2016 7:24 PM, Sailfish wrote:
>>> My bloviated meandering follows what Good Guy graced us with on
>>> 5/19/2016 7:08 PM:
>>>> Can somebody tell me why is that in 2016, we are still relying on air
>>>> plane's black box when the data could be transmitted in real time to
>>>> the ground controls team who could assess it immediately and produce
>>>> an interim report for the security services.  Black box may take
>>>> months to find it and analyse it.  All these missing planes invariably
>>>> end up in deep seas and sometimes it is impossible to find the black
>>>> box.
>>>>
>>> The Black Boxes have tapes with many tracks (as many as 28), some
>>> analog, some digital. The bandwidth required to transmit all that data
>>> real time would be horrendous in addition to the fact that there is so
>>> much data that it would be virtually impossible to analyze in real time.
>>>
>> No need to analyse all the data, all the time, in real time .... except
>> in those limited cases where something goes wrong.
>>
> Without a goodly portion of the data, I suspect that a pinpoint
> post-analysis would still be improbable. Even if they could ascertain to
> say a 70% chance of certainty, they'd still want to review the black box
> before releasing any finding, imo.
>

They could leave the black boxes since they're already implemented. I
don't think it would take much to have 30 minutes (or less I'm sure) of
cabin audio/video transmitted. At least then the critical events could
be known immediately, and all the bulk data could be retrieved from the
black boxes.  And for now at least, local flights could be left out, and
only install to high risk flights.

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Re: Black Box - Why wait?

😉 Good Guy 😉
On 21/05/2016 23:06, [hidden email] wrote:

>
>>
>
> They could leave the black boxes since they're already implemented. I
> don't think it would take much to have 30 minutes (or less I'm sure)
> of cabin audio/video transmitted. At least then the critical events
> could be known immediately, and all the bulk data could be retrieved
> from the black boxes.  And for now at least, local flights could be
> left out, and only install to high risk flights.
>

Exactly.  this what I am thinking of.  At present we are just
hypothesizing the events when audio/video would be ideal and we know
what happened.

Black Box can be analysed in its own time but security authorities must
know immediately what happened and start putting key suspects under
surveillance and if necessary arresting them before they disappear
completely.


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Re: Black Box - Why wait?

Sailfish-4
In reply to this post by Terry
My bloviated meandering follows what [hidden email] graced us
with on 5/21/2016 3:06 PM:
> On 5/21/2016 12:27 PM On a whim, Sailfish pounded out on the keyboard
>
<snip />

>> Without a goodly portion of the data, I suspect that a pinpoint
>> post-analysis would still be improbable. Even if they could ascertain to
>> say a 70% chance of certainty, they'd still want to review the black box
>> before releasing any finding, imo.
>>
>
> They could leave the black boxes since they're already implemented. I
> don't think it would take much to have 30 minutes (or less I'm sure) of
> cabin audio/video transmitted. At least then the critical events could
> be known immediately, and all the bulk data could be retrieved from the
> black boxes.  And for now at least, local flights could be left out, and
> only install to high risk flights.
>
Leaving local flights out would be an invitation for terrorists since
part of their objective is uncertainty to increase the fear factor. Also,

REF:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2204838/Rush-hour-skies-Real-time-map-shows-plane-air-right-now.html

[excerpt quote=\"
At any given moment there are an estimated 5,000 commercial airplanes in
the skies over the United States and now there's a website that enables
you to track them, in real time, on a map.
\" /]

and that's over the US only. It would be an interesting analysis to
determine just what the minimal information that would be needed to
provide even an 80/20 level of certainty as to the cause of the crash.
Maybe they could have something on the aircraft that would transmit a
failure burst data dump on just the prior 5 or so minutes leading up to
the aircraft detecting a critical failure?

--
Sailfish
Rare Mozilla Stuff: http://tinyurl.com/lcey2ex
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Re: Black Box - Why wait?

PietB
In reply to this post by Zeb Carter
Zeb Carter wrote:
> Keep the black box and scrub the data between flights if a
> successful landing is accomplished

Both FDR and CVR are implemented as a circular buffer.

> Automatic pinger that transmits the aircraft's vitals (altitude,
> lat/long via GPS, direction of flight, and speed)

https://www.flightradar24.com/how-it-works

-p

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Re: Black Box - Why wait?

Terry
In reply to this post by Sailfish-4
On 5/21/2016 9:53 PM On a whim, Sailfish pounded out on the keyboard

> My bloviated meandering follows what [hidden email] graced us
> with on 5/21/2016 3:06 PM:
>> On 5/21/2016 12:27 PM On a whim, Sailfish pounded out on the keyboard
>>
> <snip />
>
>>> Without a goodly portion of the data, I suspect that a pinpoint
>>> post-analysis would still be improbable. Even if they could ascertain to
>>> say a 70% chance of certainty, they'd still want to review the black box
>>> before releasing any finding, imo.
>>>
>> They could leave the black boxes since they're already implemented. I
>> don't think it would take much to have 30 minutes (or less I'm sure) of
>> cabin audio/video transmitted. At least then the critical events could
>> be known immediately, and all the bulk data could be retrieved from the
>> black boxes.  And for now at least, local flights could be left out, and
>> only install to high risk flights.
>>
> Leaving local flights out would be an invitation for terrorists since
> part of their objective is uncertainty to increase the fear factor. Also,
>

Yes, but rather than do nothing because of the overwhelming amount of
flights, it would be a start, as I did say, "for now".

> REF:
> http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2204838/Rush-hour-skies-Real-time-map-shows-plane-air-right-now.html
>
> [excerpt quote=\"
> At any given moment there are an estimated 5,000 commercial airplanes in
> the skies over the United States and now there's a website that enables
> you to track them, in real time, on a map.
> \" /]
>

I've watched similar sites.  The nighttime flights are incredible.

> and that's over the US only. It would be an interesting analysis to
> determine just what the minimal information that would be needed to
> provide even an 80/20 level of certainty as to the cause of the crash.
> Maybe they could have something on the aircraft that would transmit a
> failure burst data dump on just the prior 5 or so minutes leading up to
> the aircraft detecting a critical failure?
>

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